Every time the market hits a new all-time high, the financial chorus begins to sing their same old refrain, “This is the top of the market. Play it safe and take profits.” It’s an understandable reaction. After all, what goes up must come down, right?
But history has shown that bull markets didn’t hit a stop button when they reached new highs. Instead, they kept climbing, sometimes for years after many assumed the party is over.
So while past behavior is not a guarantee of future results, if the market just hit an all-time high and you're wondering whether you've missed your opportunity, history may suggest otherwise.
A bull market is a sustained increase in stock prices, defined as a gain of 20% or more from a recent low. A bear market is the opposite, involving a decline of 20% or more from a recent peak.
Some say those monikers reflect how each animal attacks. A bull thrusts its horns upward to toss an enemy into the air. A bear swipes its massive claws downward. That’s a visual that should stick with you. But here's what the dictionary definition doesn't reveal: bulls and bears are wildly different market beasts.
Looking at an analysis of historical market cycles from 1970 to 2025, bull markets have lasted an average of 4.4 years and delivered average gains of 151.1%. Bear markets, on the other hand, average around 9 to 16 months. Certainly painful, but far shorter.1
Data from Vanguard puts the average bull period at roughly 5 years and 7 months, compared to just 9 months for the average bear. The exact figures vary by methodology, but the core truth remains: Historical bull markets lasted longer and bear markets passed.2
Source: Vanguard. “Bull and Bear Markets over Time.” Accessed August 5, 2026
According to a Leuthold Group study cited by Charles Schwab, as of 2024 there have been 16 major advances in the S&P 500 since 1957. When a bull market began its run during an economic downturn during that time period, the S&P 500 gained an average of 135% over 45 months. When the preceding decline wasn't tied to a recession, the subsequent advance averaged 75% over 35 months.3
Either way, these are the kind of returns that can transform a portfolio.
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 10.5% before adjusting for inflation.4 That means over this time period the market has weathered recessions, geopolitical crises, pandemics, and interest rate shocks, and yet still endured and grown over the long-term.
In 2025 alone, the S&P 500 recorded 39 all-time highs, making it the fifth-most record-setting year since 2000, according to BNY Investments.5 That's not a market teetering on a precipice. That's a market growing, and then growing some more. Historically, forward returns after new all-time highs were higher on average than those following other days. This data directly contradicts the instinct to sit on the sidelines when markets look “overheated.”
Market timers invest according to a seductive premise: avoid the bad days, catch the good ones, reap the rewards. It sounds great in theory, but reality says it’s nearly impossible.
According to Hartford Funds, 76% of the stock market's best days occurred during a bear market or in the first two months of a bull market.6 Think about that. The biggest single-day rebounds, the kind that can rescue a battered portfolio’s annual return, generally happen when nervous investors are sitting on the sidelines.
Miss those days and the disappointment will be bitter.
Source: Hartford Funds. “Timing the Market Is Impossible.” Accessed August 6, 2026.
Unfortunately, you can’t cheat, missing the scary periods and still collecting the gains. We believe the only reliable way to capture the best days in the market is to be there for all of them. To us the old adage is true, time in the markets beats timing the market.
Every investor who opens their trading app after a roaring rally asks the same question: Is it too late?
History's answer is a resounding, data-backed “No!”.
Markets that reach new highs have tended to keep reaching new highs. The S&P 500 doesn't treat its own record as a ceiling, but as more of a launchpad. A new record is not evidence that the market has overshot a boundary. To us it's evidence of compounding doing exactly what compounding does.
Consider this. If an investor avoided the S&P 500 every time it set a new record, they would have spent most of the past century in cash. Markets spend a significant portion of their time at or near record highs, which is what a compounding asset should do. Looking at every record with trepidation is a great way to miss most of the market's gains.
That doesn't mean crashes don't happen. They do, and they will. But the bear market that follows every all-time high has, without exception throughout S&P 500 history, eventually been followed by a new all-time high. The question was never if. It was always when.
Savvy investors don't wait for the "perfect" entry point. They know there isn’t one. What they do instead is build habits that counter emotional responses. Here's a road map.
Dollar-cost averaging, or investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions, can help reduce the risk of poor timing. You may buy more shares when prices dip, fewer when they soar, and your average cost can smooth out over time.
The data is unambiguous. The best days hover in proximity to the worst moments. Selling during a downturn not only locks in a loss, but almost certainly guarantees that you’ll miss the bounce-back. Maintaining discipline is paramount. We think the investors who win long-term are those who don't blink.
A concentrated bet is fragile. A diversified portfolio, across sectors, geographies, and asset types, potentially means no single poor performer can tank your portfolio in good or bad markets.
Hypotehtically speaking, the S&P 500 at 10.5% annually could turn $10,000 into roughly $28,000 over 10 years and nearly $81,000 over 20.7 And this is without adding a single additional dollar. Time is the compounding machine's fuel. Every year you delay is a year you don't get back.
All-time highs feel dangerous. The data says they're milestones. The S&P 500 hit 39 of them in a single year in 2025, and the market kept going. Records shouldn’t end bull markets. Recessions, rate shocks, and earnings collapses do. And those eventually give way to the next bull run.
Pay careful attention to the numbers we’ve seen. They don’t lie.
The fears that keep investors on the sidelines have a real, measurable cost: the years of compounding that they’ll never get back. Bull markets aren't forever, but they have historically tended to be longer and stronger than fear suggests.
We believe the bull market should still have room to run. The only question is whether you'll be along for the ride.